Risks

How to avoid the severe flooding in Japan ? : Over 200 people died in recent floods and landslides

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（From NHK)

Over 200 people have died in floods and landslides triggered by the recent torrential rain in western Japan in July 2018.

It is the highest death toll caused by rainfall that Japan has seen in more than four decades.

In Japan, 1300 municipalities released the hazard maps.

They namely pinpoint locations at risk of floods or landslides.

There was a time when the disclosure of hazard information raised many eyebrows as fanning people’s fears and lowering property values.

But after we saw the recent worst flooding disaster in west of Japan in four decades, this is no longer the case.

In the Mabicho district of Kurashiki, Okayama Prefecture, the flooded areas reportedly corresponded exactly to what the hazard map showed. To date, more than 40 bodies have been recovered from severely flooded residential neighborhoods, now blanketed with mud.

CNN report

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How to avoid buying a house with problems in Japan : Tips for detecting a malicious defect in your property

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While inspecting any property is important, it becomes even more uppermost to check for defects found in second-hand property especially akiya (空き家abandoned houses)
In Japan’s real estate industry, it is generally assumed that there are four types of risks of ‘defects’ （瑕疵）the industry professionals usually recognize.
They are physical defects, psychological defects, environmental defects
and legal defect (issues).

1. What is a physical defect?
Physical flaws are situations where the building leaks, termites occur, and the earthquake resistant strength is insufficient.
Some common physical issues
For example, with 8 million akiya (Abandoned house, 空き家),
old houses are usually very affordable in Japan these days. However, those old houses could also come with a lot of issues that you may not be prepared for.
What seems like a great deal at first may ultimately cost much more than you originally thought.
It is always recommended to do your research before investing in real estate, particularly when the property in question is old property.
The following checklist will give you an idea of what issues to watch out for when buying a second-hand property especially an older home.
Due diligence always pays off.
You want to avoid common physical defects, problems with the construction structure. 

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Real estate investment Japan : Liquefaction risk caused by earthquake in Tokyo

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(Nebuta, Aomori)
Japan is subject to many wind and water related disasters due to the fact that much of the land is steeply inclined and experiences a lot of rain. In addition, typhoons also hit Japan from summer to fall.
Located in an area where many continental plates meet, Japan also experience earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
Although Japan is a disaster-prone country, there is no need to be overly concerned.
We have some preparation measures. For example, here In Japan, every resident with a mobile phone receives a text message warning of imminent quakes.
Many disasters are small in scale, and Japan has accumulated knowledge on how to deal with disasters through past experience.
Secondary disasters that occur after the quake also characterize major earthquakes. If you and your property are near the coast, there may be a risk of tsunami.
According to an article in Economist in February 2018, in US,
“there is a 10% chance that in the next 30 years an earthquake between 8.0 and 9.0 in magnitude will rupture the Cascadia subduction zone that runs along the coast of Washington, Oregon and Northern California.
US has no early-warning system.
Mexico, Turkey, Romania, China, Italy, and Taiwan all have systems to warn residents of imminent earthquakes.”
My point is that natural disasters could happen anywhere in the world and thus preparation is very critical.
Many foreign investors ask us about the liquefaction risk in Tokyo area.
Today I am going to discuss the risk of liquefaction caused by the earthquake in Tokyo citing the information released by the local governments.

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High yielding, guaranteed rent should be too good to be true ?: ‘Kabocha no basha’ subletting problem in Japan

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Pitfall of sub-leasing(sub-letting) real estate investment

High yielding, guaranteed rent（sub-leasing)  should be too good to be true ?
Recently one of the scandals which rattled the industry is KABOCHA-NO-BASHA
(Pumpkin Carriage) problem.
The background of the scandal is as follows.
Investors were guaranteed a fixed monthly amount over an extended period if they invested money by contracting with a real estate company called Smart Days(Tokyo)
that used the funds to set up and manage share house facilities under sub-leasing agreement.
Since 2015, Smart Days, operator of women-only share houses called Kabocha no Basha (Pumpkin Carriage), has promoted high yield investments through the media and has mainly acquired customers of office workers. In the sub-leasing contract, rent payment collected through the sub-leasing is sought to pay back the debt for a long period plus small profit.
For example, suppose you borrow 100 million yen from a bank and the monthly repayment amount is 500,000 yen, if you earn rental income of 550,000 yen a month, it will generate 50,000 yen a month profit. This system is typical leveraging in the real estate investing and there is no red flag about it.
In an ideal setting, Smart days as the sub-leasing company would rent out rooms to tenants and bring in a steady and continuous supply of rent, a portion of which would go to the investors.The shared house with shared toilets and bathrooms is not as wide as 7 m² in living space, but the initial cost of moving in is kept low (so they say), and it was expected that more women moving into Tokyo from rural cities will choose to stay in these share houses.Smart days also promoted the business to support tenants finding a job (This is an alarming part)

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Vacancy risk: Risks in private real estate investment in Japan (Part2)

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Vacancy risk
Previously I discussed the defect risks when you acquire the property.
Today I will discuss the risks while you are owning the property.
In fact, there are several challenges while you own and manage the property.
Vacancy is one of them.
Vacant rooms obviously do not generate any income so it is very important
to fill your property (whether it is a rental house or a small multiunit rental property) with good, rent-paying tenants.
However in practice, you will see vacant rooms for certain time period over the years and there are tenants who don’t honor the leasing contract.
Let’s look at the ‘vacancy risk’ and how to mitigate such risk.
The beauty of real estate investment in Japan is that your can expect very
stable income every month. Rents are usually  paid monthly.
Therefore finding stable trustworthy tenants is a key for success.
However, due to certain reasons such as inconvenient location of the property,
Investors may face the situation where the property being vacant.
If your occupancy rate is very poor, you may have the problems to pay back
the loan. That is the ‘vacancy risk’.

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Hidden Defects : Risks in private real estate investment in Japan (Part1)

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There are risks associated with any investment – loss of capital, finance, leverage and liquidity risks and so on.
Not like buying the paper assets such as REITS, many of these are only relevant to the direct investment (where the investor invests, owns and has control over the real estate asset).
This article will highlight the main risks associated with investing in real estate in Japan and provides commentary on how to analyse and mitigate these risks.
Today I am going to discuss the risks at time of acquisition.
Unlike regulated industries such as accounting and financial planning, working for a property company (as distinct from working as a traditional real estate agent),
does not require a great deal of education, experience, or study prowess. Marketing investment property requires nothing really but the ability to sell.
That is one of the reasons why there are unlicensed (often rogue )
‘property consultants’ in Japan.
Engaging in the marketing activity to lure the investors without holding a license is against the
Building Lots and Buildings Transaction Business Law. If your consultant or agent do not hold
the license, your contract is not protected by the said law.
For more information, please see my post on February 11, 2018.
Are there any rogue real estate agents in Japan ?
At the end of the day, even the good agents cannot guarantee the success of the investment and thus investors must learn the risks and returns
before they make a investment.

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